Management operation problem forecasting | Economics homework help

3-Period Moving Average

provides a better historical fit based on the MAD criterion.

Question 4

Demand at Nature Trails Ski Resort has a seasonal pattern. Demand is highest during the winter, as this is the peak ski season. However, there is some ski demand in the spring and even fall months. The summer months can also be busy as visitors often come for summer vacation to go hiking on the mountain trails. The owner of Nature Trails would like to make a forecast for each season of the next year. Total annual demand has been estimated at 4,020 visitors. Given the last two years of historical data, what is the forecast for each season of the next year?

	Visitors
Season	Year 1	Year 2
Fall	196	225
Winter	1,415	1,616
Spring	504	601
Summer	693	818

(Round your answers to 0 decimal place, the tolerance is +/-1.)

Season

Forecast

Fall

linear association between sales and training hours.

b. Using the data, what would you expect sales to be if training was increased to eighteen hours? Use the linear regression model. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places, the tolerance is +/-0.01.)
Sales = predictor of resort attendance. (Do not round your intermediate computations to answer this question.)

Question 9

Small Wonder, an amusement park, experiences seasonal attendance. It has collected two years of quarterly attendance data and made a forecast of annual attendance for the coming year. Compute the seasonal indexes for the four quarters and generate quarterly forecasts for the coming year, assuming annual attendance for the coming year to be 1525.

	Park Attendance (in thousands)

Fall	352	391
Winter	156	212
Spring	489	518

Fall

yields lower MSE.

(Round your answers to 2 decimal places, the tolerance is +/-0.05)

Question 11

Pumpkin Pies Galore is trying to forecast sales of pies for the month of December. Demand for pies in September, October, and November has been 220, 315, and 396, respectively. Edith, the company’s owner, uses a three-period weighted moving average to forecast sales. Based on her experience, she chooses to weight September as 0.1, October as 0.3, and November as 0.6. (Round your answers to 1 decimal place, the tolerance is +/-0.1.)

a. What would Edith’s forecast for December be?
Forecast using a weighted moving average = approach is better.

Question 12

A company has used three different methods to forecast sales for the past five months. Use MAD and MSE to evaluate the performance of the three methods.

(a) Which forecasting method performed best?


1	10	10	9	8
2	8	11	10	11
3	12	12	8	10
4	11	13	12	11

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